Journal of Data Science

Historical data or real-world data are often available in clinical trials, genetics, health care, psychology, environmental health, engineering, economics, and business. The power priors have emerged as a useful class of informative priors for a variety of situations in which historical data are available. In this paper, an overview of the development of the power priors is provided. Various variations of the power priors are derived under a binomial regression model and a normal linear regression model. The development of software on the power priors is also briefly reviewed. Throughout this paper, the data from the Kociba study and the National Toxicology Program study as well as the data from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) study are used to demonstrate the derivations of the power priors and their variations. Detailed analyses of the data from these studies are carried out to further demonstrate the usefulness of the power priors and their variations in these real applications. Finally, the directions of future research on the power priors are discussed.

Dr. David S. Salsburg’s career has been an exceptional one. He was the first statistician to work in Pfizer, Inc., and later became the first statistician from the pharmaceutical industry to be elected as an ASA fellow. He played a vital role as a statistician in Pfizer, Inc. at a time when the drug approval process was developed. For his contributions, Dr. Salsburg was awarded the Career Achievement Award of the Biostatistics Section of the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America in 1994, for “significant contributions to the advancement of biostatistics in the pharmaceutical industry”. Dr. Salsburg also managed to achieve something rare among scientists, which is to popularize his field of research and make it accessible and enjoyable to laypeople. Dr. Salsburg is possibly best known for his book “The Lady Tasting Tea – How Statistics Revolutionized the 20th Century Science”, in which he combines simple and engaging explanations of statistical methods, and why they are needed, along with personal stories told with a great deal of generosity, fondness, and humor about the people who developed them. Dr. Salsburg’s admiration for the those statisticians shines through. In this interview, Dr. Salsburg shares his own stories and perspectives, from his childhood, through his service in the Navy and his long and productive career in Pfizer, Inc. to his equally productive retirement, in which he authored “The Lady Tasting Tea” and other books.