Journal of Data Science

In the evolving field of survey research, leveraging machine learning to predict response behavior has transformative potential for the efficiency of survey operations. Integrating multiple data sources may improve response prediction by providing more nuanced insights for household outreach. This study presents a model-driven approach to enhancing respondent cooperation in the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) by combining features from disparate data sources. MEPS is a longitudinal household survey with 5 rounds of interviewing over 2.5 years. Its sample is derived prior National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) participants. MEPS Round 1 response rates are critical for sustaining representativeness throughout each panel. In this study, we constructed a multimodal machine learning model to predict (1) the likelihood of a positive response for an upcoming contact attempt and (2) the likelihood that new panel households complete a Round 1 interview. The model integrates tract-level data from the American Community Survey (ACS), outcomes from the Advance Call Records (ACR) made prior to MEPS Round 1, and paradata from the early contact period. We also explored the relative contributions of these sources to model performance. Our model aims to help manage field labor by identifying complex cases needing specialized support. It can also assist in determining the optimal mode for the next contact to increase the chance of a completed interview. Beyond improving MEPS operations, this study offers a roadmap for incorporating additional data sources to support fieldwork.

Artificial intelligence (AI) has lately emerged as a transformative force in scientific discovery, with skills in accelerating knowledge synthesis, automating experimentation, and enhancing interdisciplinary collaboration. As research challenges—ranging from climate change to rare disease treatments—grow more and more complex, the rapid evolution of AI calls for a comprehensive examination of its current and future roles. Despite recent breakthroughs, the field remains fragmented, due to the lack of a unified framework to understand AI’s progression in science and its implications for data science, in particular. To address this gap, this review provides an analysis on AI for science, and also introduces a novel three-phase framework—Keplerian (data-driven pattern recognition), Edisonian (autonomous experimentation), and Einsteinian (foundational innovation)—to conceptualize AI’s evolving role in science. Additionally, we discuss the ethical, environmental, and data privacy challenges that go alongside AI’s integration in science, emphasizing the need for sustainable and responsible development. This review outlines how AI may transform the scientific methods and to help researchers harness AI’s potential to drive scientific innovation.

Stunted growth in children is a worldwide issue which may cause long term problems for individuals stunted as early as two years of age. However, predicting stunted growth with accuracy is quite complex, but machine learning poses a distinct advantage in this regard. While several techniques are available for predictive modeling, the Super Learner stands out as an ensemble method that integrates multiple algorithms into a single predictive model with enhanced performance. In this study, the Super Learner model, comprising generalized linear model, bagged trees, random forests, conditional random forest, stochastic gradient boosting, Bayesian additive regression trees, neural networks, and model averaged neural networks, achieved high performance with high area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, Brier Score, and the minimum of precision and recall values. However, after analyzing the results from cross validation, the final model selected was the Bayesian additive regression trees. Within the final model, the height-for-age z-score at one year, income, expenditure, anti-lipopolysaccharide antibody at week 6 and at week 18, plasma retinol binding protein at week 6, plasma soluble cluster designation 14 at week 18, fecal Reg 1B at week 12, vitamin D at week 18, mother’s weight and height at enrollment, fecal calprotectin at week 12, fecal myeloperoxidase at week 12, number of days of diarrhea through the first year of life, and the number of days of exclusive breastfeeding through the first year of life emerged as the top important variables for predicting stunted growth at two years of age.

The rapid accumulation and release of data have fueled research across various fields. While numerous methods exist for data collection and storage, data distribution presents challenges, as some datasets are restricted, and certain subsets may compromise privacy if released unaltered. Statistical disclosure control (SDC) aims to maximize data utility while minimizing the disclosure risk, i.e., the risk of individual identification. A key SDC method is data perturbation, with General Additive Data Perturbation (GADP) and Copula General Additive Data Perturbation (CGADP) being two prominent approaches. Both leverage multivariate normal distributions to generate synthetic data while preserving statistical properties of the original dataset. Given the increasing use of machine learning for data modeling, this study compares the performance of various machine learning models on GADP- and CGADP-perturbed data. Using Monte Carlo simulations with three data-generating models and a real dataset, we evaluate the predictive performance and robustness of ten machine learning techniques under data perturbation. Our findings provide insights into the machine learning techniques that perform robustly on GADP- and CGADP-perturbed datasets, extending previous research that primarily focused on simple statistics such as means, variances, and correlations.

Business Establishment Automated Classification of NAICS (BEACON) is a text classification tool that helps respondents to the U.S. Census Bureau’s economic surveys self-classify their business activity in real time. The tool is based on rich training data, natural language processing, machine learning, and information retrieval. It is implemented using Python and an application programming interface. This paper describes BEACON’s methodology and successful application to the 2022 Economic Census, during which the tool was used over half a million times. BEACON has demonstrated that it recognizes a large vocabulary, quickly returns relevant results to respondents, and reduces clerical work associated with industry code assignment.

Physician performance is critical to caring for patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), who are in life-threatening situations and require high level medical care and interventions. Evaluating physicians is crucial for ensuring a high standard of medical care and fostering continuous performance improvement. The non-randomized nature of ICU data often results in imbalance in patient covariates across physician groups, making direct comparisons of the patients’ survival probabilities for each physician misleading. In this article, we utilize the propensity weighting method to address confounding, achieve covariates balance, and assess physician effects. Due to possible model misspecification, we compare the performance of the propensity weighting methods using both parametric models and super learning methods. When the generalized propensity or the quality function is not correctly specified within the parametric propensity weighting framework, super learning-based propensity weighting methods yield more efficient estimators. We demonstrate that utilizing propensity weighting offers an effective way to assess physician performance, a topic of considerable interest to hospital administrators.

Boosting is a popular algorithm in supervised machine learning with wide applications in regression and classification problems. It combines weak learners, such as regression trees, to obtain accurate predictions. However, in the presence of outliers, traditional boosting may yield inferior results since the algorithm optimizes a convex loss function. Recent literature has proposed boosting algorithms that optimize robust nonconvex loss functions. Nevertheless, there is a lack of weighted estimation to indicate the outlier status of observations. This article introduces the iteratively reweighted boosting (IRBoost) algorithm, which combines robust loss optimization and weighted estimation. It can be conveniently constructed with existing software. The output includes weights as valuable diagnostics for the outlier status of observations. For practitioners interested in the boosting algorithm, the new method can be interpreted as a way to tune robust observation weights. IRBoost is implemented in the R package irboost and is demonstrated using publicly available data in generalized linear models, classification, and survival data analysis.

The programming overhead required to implement machine learning workflows creates a barrier for many discipline-specific researchers with limited programming experience. The stressor package provides an R interface to Python’s PyCaret package, which automatically tunes and trains 14-18 machine learning (ML) models for use in accuracy comparisons. In addition to providing an R interface to PyCaret, stressor also contains functions that facilitate synthetic data generation and variants of cross-validation that allow for easy benchmarking of the ability of machine-learning models to extrapolate or compete with simpler models on simpler data forms. We show the utility of stressor on two agricultural datasets, one using classification models to predict crop suitability and another using regression models to predict crop yields. Full ML benchmarking workflows can be completed in only a few lines of code with relatively small computational cost. The results, and more importantly the workflow, provide a template for how applied researchers can quickly generate accuracy comparisons of many machine learning models with very little programming.

Statistical learning methods have been growing in popularity in recent years. Many of these procedures have parameters that must be tuned for models to perform well. Research has been extensive in neural networks, but not for many other learning methods. We looked at the behavior of tuning parameters for support vector machines, gradient boosting machines, and adaboost in both a classification and regression setting. We used grid search to identify ranges of tuning parameters where good models can be found across many different datasets. We then explored different optimization algorithms to select a model across the tuning parameter space. Models selected by the optimization algorithm were compared to the best models obtained through grid search to select well performing algorithms. This information was used to create an R package, EZtune, that automatically tunes support vector machines and boosted trees.

Malignant mesotheliomas are aggressive cancers that occur in the thin layer of tissue that covers most commonly the linings of the chest or abdomen. Though the cancer itself is rare and deadly, early diagnosis will help with treatment and improve outcomes. Mesothelioma is usually diagnosed in the later stages. Symptoms are similar to other, more common conditions. As such, predicting and diagnosing mesothelioma early is essential to starting early treatment for a cancer that is often diagnosed too late. The goal of this comprehensive empirical comparison is to determine the best-performing model based on recall (sensitivity). We particularly wish to avoid false negatives, as it is costly to diagnose a patient as healthy when they actually have cancer. Model training will be conducted based on k-fold cross validation. Random forest is chosen as the optimal model. According to this model, age and duration of asbestos exposure are ranked as the most important features affecting diagnosis of mesothelioma.