Journal of Data Science

Abstract: The Lee-Carter model and its extensions are the most popular methods in the field of forecasting mortality rate. But, in spite of introducing several different methods in forecasting mortality rate so far, there is no general method applicable to all situations. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) is a relatively new, powerful and non parametric time series analysis that its capability in forecasting different time series has been proven in the various sciences. In this paper, we investigate the feasibility of using the SSA to construct mortality forecasts. We use the Hyndman-Ullah model, which is a new extension of Lee-Carter model, as a benchmark to evaluate the performance of the SSA for mortality forecasts in France data sets.

Abstract: The aim of this paper is to represent the Bonus-Malus System (BMS) of Iran, which is a mandatory scheme based on Insurance act num ber 56. We examine the current Iranian BMS, using various criteria such as elasticity and time of convergence to steady state with respect to the claim frequency as well as financial balance. We also find the closed form of stationary distribution of the Iranian BMS that plays a key role in study of BMSs. Moreover, we compare the results with the German and Japan BMS. Finally we give some hints that can be used to improve the performance of the current Iranian BMS.