Journal of Data Science

Abstract: In this paper, a tree-structured method is proposed to extend Classification and Regression Trees (CART) algorithm to multivariate survival data, assuming a proportional hazard structure in the whole tree. The method works on the marginal survivor distributions and uses a sandwich estimator of variance to account for the association between survival times. The Wald-test statistics is defined as the splitting rule and the survival trees are developed by maximizing between-node separation. The proposed method intends to classify patients into subgroups with distinctively different prognosis. However, unlike the conventional tree-growing algorithms which work on a subset of data at every partition, the proposed method deals with the whole data set and searches the global optimal split at each partition. The method is applied to a prostate cancer data and its performance is also evaluated by several simulation studies.

Abstract: Searching for data structure and decision rules using classification and regression tree (CART) methodology is now well established. An alternative procedure, search partition analysis (SPAN), is less well known. Both provide classifiers based on Boolean structures; in CART these are generated by a hierarchical series of local sub-searches and in SPAN by a global search. One issue with CART is its perceived instability, another the awkward nature of the Boolean structures generated by a hierarchical tree. Instability arises because the final tree structure is sensitive to early splits. SPAN, as a global search, seems more likely to render stable partitions. To examine these issues in the context of identifying mothers at risk of giving birth to low birth weight babies, we have taken a very large sample, divided it at random into ten non-overlapping sub-samples and performed SPAN and CART analyses on each sub-sample. The stability of the SPAN and CART models is described and, in addition, the structure of the Boolean representation of classifiers is examined. It is found that SPAN partitions have more intrinsic stability and less prone to Boolean structural irregularities.