Journal of Data Science

We propose a differentially private Bayesian framework for envelope regression, a technique that improves estimation efficiency by modelling the response as a function of a low-dimensional subspace of the predictors. Our method applies the analytic Gaussian mechanism to privatize sufficient statistics from the data, ensuring formal $(\epsilon ,\delta )$-differential privacy. We develop a tailored Gibbs sampling algorithm that performs valid Bayesian inference using only the noisy sufficient statistics. This approach leverages the envelope structure to isolate the variation in predictors that is relevant to the response, reducing estimation error compared to standard regression under the same privacy constraints. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate improved estimation accuracy and tighter credible intervals relative to a differentially private Bayesian linear regression baseline.

Abstract: We consider the Autoregressive Conditional Marked Duration (ACMD) model and apply it to 16 stocks traded in Hong Kong Stock Ex change (SEHK). By examining the orderings of appropriate sets of model parameters, market microstructure phenomena can be explained. To sub stantiate these conclusions, likelihood ratio test is used for testing the sig nificance of the parameter orderings of the ACMD model. While some of our results resolve a few controversial market microstructure hypotheses and echo some of the existing empirical evidence, we discover some interesting market microstructure phenomena that may be characteristic to SEHK.