Journal of Data Science

Abstract: Progress towards government health targets for health areas may be assessed by short term extrapolation of recent trends. Often the observed longitudinal series for a set of health areas is relatively short and a parsimonious model is needed that is adapted to varying observed trajectories between areas. A forecasting model should also include spatial dependence between areas both in representing stable cross-sectional differences and in terms of changing incidence. A fully Bayesian spatio-temporal forecasting model is developed incorporating flexible but parsimonious time dependence while allowing spatial dependencies. An application involves conception rates to women aged under 18 in the 32 boroughs of London.