Journal of Data Science

Abstract: A spatio-temporal statistical model for Chronic Wasting Disease is presented. The model has underpinnings from traditional epidemic models with differential equations and uses a Bayesian hierarchy to directly incorporate existing prevalence data. Spatial dynamics are modeled explicitly through a system of difference equations rather than through covariance. The posterior distribution gives evidence of a long term stable level of disease prevalence, and approximates the probability of the movement of the disease from one area to another. Predictions for the future of Chronic Wasting Disease in Colorado are given. The model is used to formulate efficient sampling schemes for future data collection.