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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">1680-743X</issn>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>SOSRUC</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">080209</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/JDS.2010.08(2).587
</article-id>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Research Article</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Age-Adjusted US Cancer Death Rate Predictions</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Hayat</surname>
            <given-names>Matthew J.</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_000"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_000">Johns Hopkins University</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Tiwari</surname>
            <given-names>Ram C.</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_001"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_001">National Cancer Institute</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Ghosh</surname>
            <given-names>Kaushik</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_002"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_002">University of Nevada Las Vegas</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Hachey</surname>
            <given-names>Mark</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_003"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_003">Information Management Services</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Hankey</surname>
            <given-names>Ben</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_004"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_004">National Cancer Institute</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Feuer</surname>
            <given-names>Rocky</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_005"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_005">National Cancer Institute</aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <volume>8</volume>
      <issue>2</issue>
      <fpage>339</fpage>
      <lpage>348</lpage>
      <permissions>
        <ali:free_to_read xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/"/>
      </permissions>
      <abstract>
        <p>Abstract: The likelihood of developing cancer during one’s lifetime is approximately one in two for men and one in three for women in the United States. Cancer is the second-leading cause of death and accounts for one in every four deaths. Evidence-based policy planning and decision making by cancer researchers and public health administrators are best accomplished with up-to-date age-adjusted site-specific cancer death rates. Because of the 3-year lag in reporting, forecasting methodology is employed here to estimate the current year’s rates based on complete observed death data up through three years prior to the current year. The authors expand the State Space Model (SSM) statistical methodology currently in use by the American Cancer Society (ACS) to predict age-adjusted cancer death rates for the current year. These predictions are compared with those from the previous Proc Forecast ACS method and results suggest the expanded SSM performs well.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <label>Keywords</label>
        <kwd>Age-adjusted mortality rate</kwd>
        <kwd>local quadratic model</kwd>
        <kwd>state space model</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
