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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">1680-743X</issn>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>SOSRUC</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">JULY3</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/JDS.202007_18(3).0003</article-id>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Research Article</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>An epidemiological forecast model and software assessing interventions on the COVID-19 epidemic in China</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Wang</surname>
            <given-names>Lili</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_000"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_000">Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Zhou</surname>
            <given-names>Yiwang</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_001"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_001">Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>He</surname>
            <given-names>Jie</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_002"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_002">Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Zhu</surname>
            <given-names>Bin</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_003"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_003">Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics, National Cancer Institute, Rockville, MD</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Wang</surname>
            <given-names>Fei</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_004"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_004">Data Science Team, CarGurus, Cambridge, MA</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Tang</surname>
            <given-names>Lu</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_005"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_005">Department of Biostatistics, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Kleinsasser</surname>
            <given-names>Michael</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_006"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_006">Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Barker</surname>
            <given-names>Daniel</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_007"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_007">Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Eisenberg</surname>
            <given-names>Marisa C.</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_008"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_008">Department of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Song</surname>
            <given-names>Peter X.K.</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_009"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_009">Department of Biostatistics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI</aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <volume>18</volume>
      <issue>3</issue>
      <fpage>409</fpage>
      <lpage>432</lpage>
      <permissions>
        <ali:free_to_read xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/"/>
      </permissions>
      <abstract>
        <p>We develop a health informatics toolbox that enables timely analysis and evaluation of the timecourse dynamics of a range of infectious disease epidemics. As a case study, we examine the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) epidemic using the publicly available data from the China CDC. This toolbox is built upon a hierarchical epidemiological model in which two observed time series of daily proportions of infected and removed cases are generated from the underlying infection dynamics governed by a Markov Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) infectious disease process. We extend the SIR model to incorporate various types of time-varying quarantine protocols, including government-level ‘macro’ isolation policies and community-level ‘micro’ social distancing (e.g. self-isolation and self-quarantine) measures. We develop a calibration procedure for underreported infected cases. This toolbox provides forecasts, in both online and offline forms, as well as simulating the overall dynamics of the epidemic. An R software package is made available for the public, and examples on the use of this software are illustrated. Some possible extensions of our novel epidemiological models are discussed.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <label>Keywords</label>
        <kwd>coronavirus</kwd>
        <kwd>Infectious disease</kwd>
        <kwd>MCMC</kwd>
        <kwd>prediction</kwd>
        <kwd>Runga–Kutta approximation</kwd>
        <kwd>SIR model</kwd>
        <kwd>turning point</kwd>
        <kwd>under-reporting</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
