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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">1680-743X</issn>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>SOSRUC</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">160403</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/JDS.201810_16(4).00003</article-id>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Research Article</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Forecasting Foreign Tourist Arrivals to India Using Time Series Models</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Chandra</surname>
            <given-names>Shalini</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_000"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_000">Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Banasthali Vidyapith</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Kumari</surname>
            <given-names>Kriti</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_001"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_001">Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Banasthali Vidyapith</aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <volume>16</volume>
      <issue>4</issue>
      <fpage>702</fpage>
      <lpage>722</lpage>
      <permissions>
        <ali:free_to_read xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/"/>
      </permissions>
      <abstract>
        <p>This study aims to compare various quantitative models to forecast monthly foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) to India. The models which are considered here include vector error correction (VEC) model, Naive I and Naive II models, seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and Grey models. A model based on combination of single forecast values using simple average (SA) method has also been applied. The forecasting performance of these models have been compared under mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) and U-statistic (Ustat) criteria. Empirical findings suggest that the combination model gives better forecast of FTAs to India relative to other individual time series models considered here.</p>
      </abstract>
      <kwd-group>
        <label>Keywords</label>
        <kwd>Foreign tourist arrivals</kwd>
        <kwd>Time series models</kwd>
        <kwd>Forecast comparisons</kwd>
      </kwd-group>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
