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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title></journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1683-8602</issn><issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn><issn-l>1680-743X</issn-l>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>School of Statistics, Renmin University of China</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">JDS1229A</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/26-JDS1229</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Statistical Data Science</subject></subj-group></article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Semiparametric Dynamic Copula Models using Rolling-window Portfolio Optimization</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0004-2910-0125</contrib-id>
<name><surname>Pareek</surname><given-names>Savita</given-names></name><email xlink:href="mailto:savy.pareek@gmail.com">savy.pareek@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1229a_aff_001">1</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">∗</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Ghosh</surname><given-names>Sujit K.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1229a_aff_002">2</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="j_jds1229a_aff_001"><label>1</label>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, <institution>Auburn University</institution>, Auburn, <country>United States</country></aff>
<aff id="j_jds1229a_aff_002"><label>2</label>Department of Statistics, <institution>NC State University</institution>, Raleigh, <country>United States</country></aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1"><label>∗</label>Corresponding author. Email: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="mailto:savy.pareek@gmail.com">savy.pareek@gmail.com</ext-link>.</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>8</day><month>5</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>24</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>296</fpage><lpage>318</lpage><supplementary-material id="S1" content-type="document" xlink:href="jds1229a_s001.pdf" mimetype="application" mime-subtype="pdf">
<caption>
<title>Supplementary Material</title>
<p>Supplementary Figures and Tables &amp; Software Implementation Details.</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material><history><date date-type="received"><day>16</day><month>9</month><year>2025</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>21</day><month>3</month><year>2026</year></date></history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>2026 The Author(s). Published by the School of Statistics and the Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>Open access article under the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</ext-link> license.</license-p></license></permissions>
<abstract>
<p>The mean-variance portfolio model, based on the risk-return trade-off for optimal asset allocation, remains fundamental in portfolio optimization. However, its reliance on restrictive assumptions about asset return distributions limits its applicability to real-world data. Parametric copula structures provide a novel way to overcome these limitations by accounting for asymmetry, heavy tails, and time-varying dependencies. Existing methods have been shown to rely on fixed or static dependence structures, thus overlooking the dynamic nature of the financial market. In this study, a semiparametric model is proposed that combines nonparametrically estimated copulas with parametrically estimated marginals to allow all parameters to dynamically evolve over time. A novel framework was developed that integrates time-varying dependence modeling with flexible empirical beta-copula structures. Marginal distributions were modeled using the skewed generalized <italic>t</italic>-family. This effectively captures asymmetry and heavy tails and makes the model suitable for predictive inferences in real-world scenarios. Furthermore, the model was applied to rolling windows of financial returns from the USA, India, and Hong Kong economies to understand the influence of dynamic market conditions. The approach addresses the limitations of models that rely on parametric assumptions. By accounting for asymmetry, heavy tails, and cross-correlated asset prices, the proposed method offers a robust solution to optimize diverse portfolios in an interconnected financial market. Through adaptive modeling, it allows for better management of risk and return across varying economic conditions, leading to more efficient asset allocation and improved portfolio performance.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<label>Keywords</label>
<kwd>empirical beta copula</kwd>
<kwd>Markowitz portfolio optimization</kwd>
<kwd>skewed generalized <italic>t</italic>-distribution</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><funding-statement>No funding was received.</funding-statement></funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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