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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title></journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1683-8602</issn><issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn><issn-l>1680-743X</issn-l>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>School of Statistics, Renmin University of China</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">JDS1217</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/26-JDS1217</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Philosophies of Data Science</subject></subj-group></article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>The Typicality Principle and Its Implications for Statistics and Data Science</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Jiang</surname><given-names>Yiran</given-names></name><email xlink:href="mailto:yiran.jiang@uky.edu">yiran.jiang@uky.edu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1217_aff_001">1</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">∗</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Zhang</surname><given-names>Zeyu</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1217_aff_002">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Martin</surname><given-names>Ryan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1217_aff_003">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1919-7280</contrib-id>
<name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>Chuanhai</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1217_aff_002">2</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="j_jds1217_aff_001"><label>1</label>Dr. Bing Zhang Department of Statistics, <institution>University of Kentucky</institution>, <country>USA</country></aff>
<aff id="j_jds1217_aff_002"><label>2</label>Department of Statistics, <institution>Purdue University</institution>, <country>USA</country></aff>
<aff id="j_jds1217_aff_003"><label>3</label>Department of Statistics, <institution>NC State University</institution>, <country>USA</country></aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1"><label>∗</label>Corresponding author. Email: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="mailto:yiran.jiang@uky.edu">yiran.jiang@uky.edu</ext-link>.</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><year>2026</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>26</day><month>1</month><year>2026</year></pub-date><volume>24</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>4</fpage><lpage>25</lpage><supplementary-material id="S1" content-type="archive" xlink:href="jds1217_s001.zip" mimetype="application" mime-subtype="x-zip-compressed">
<caption>
<title>Supplementary Material</title>
<p>Code to reproduce all figures in this paper is included in the supplementary materials.</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material><history><date date-type="received"><day>4</day><month>1</month><year>2026</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>15</day><month>1</month><year>2026</year></date></history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>2026 The Author(s). Published by the School of Statistics and the Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>Open access article under the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</ext-link> license.</license-p></license></permissions>
<abstract>
<p>A central focus of data science is the transformation of empirical evidence into knowledge. By “knowledge,” we mean claims that are (i) supported by data through an explicit inferential procedure and (ii) accompanied by calibrated measures of uncertainty. As such, the scientific insights and attitudes of deep thinkers like Ronald A. Fisher, Karl R. Popper, and John W. Tukey are expected to inspire exciting new advances in machine learning and artificial intelligence in years to come. Along these lines, the present paper advances a novel <italic>typicality principle</italic> which states, roughly, that if the observed data is sufficiently “atypical” in a certain sense relative to a posited theory, then that theory is unwarranted. This emphasis on typicality brings familiar but often overlooked background notions like model-checking to the inferential foreground. One instantiation of the typicality principle is in the context of parameter estimation, where we propose a new typicality-based regularization strategy that leans heavily on goodness-of-fit testing. The effectiveness of this new regularization strategy is illustrated in three non-trivial examples where ordinary maximum likelihood estimation fails miserably. We also demonstrate how the typicality principle fits within a bigger picture of reliable and efficient uncertainty quantification.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<label>Keywords</label>
<kwd>falsification</kwd>
<kwd>goodness-of-fit</kwd>
<kwd>inferential model</kwd>
<kwd>likelihood</kwd>
<kwd>model-checking</kwd>
<kwd>regularization</kwd>
<kwd>uncertainty quantification</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><funding-statement>Liu and Zhang are supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation grant DMS-2412629. Martin is supported by the U.S. National Science Foundation grant DMS–2412628.</funding-statement></funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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