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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title></journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1683-8602</issn><issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn><issn-l>1680-743X</issn-l>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>School of Statistics, Renmin University of China</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">JDS1209</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/25-JDS1209</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Statistical Data Science</subject></subj-group></article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Rating Competitors in Games with Strength-Dependent Tie Probabilities</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3993-2801</contrib-id>
<name><surname>Glickman</surname><given-names>Mark E.</given-names></name><email xlink:href="mailto:glickman@fas.harvard.edu">glickman@fas.harvard.edu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1209_aff_001"/><xref ref-type="fn" rid="cor1">∗</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="j_jds1209_aff_001"><label>1</label>Department of Statistics, <institution>Harvard University</institution>, Cambridge, MA, <country>USA</country></aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1"><label>∗</label>Email: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="mailto:glickman@fas.harvard.edu">glickman@fas.harvard.edu</ext-link>.</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>4</day><month>12</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume content-type="ahead-of-print">0</volume><issue>0</issue><fpage>1</fpage><lpage>20</lpage><supplementary-material id="S1" content-type="archive" xlink:href="jds1209_s001.zip" mimetype="application" mime-subtype="x-zip-compressed">
<caption>
<title>Supplementary Material</title>
<p>
<list>
<list-item id="j_jds1209_li_001">
<label>•</label>
<p><monospace>Appendices.pdf</monospace>: Appendices A and B.</p>
</list-item>
<list-item id="j_jds1209_li_002">
<label>•</label>
<p><monospace>Code_and_Data.zip</monospace>: Zip file consisting of code and data to run the analyses in this manuscript.</p>
</list-item>
</list> 
</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material><history><date date-type="received"><day>13</day><month>6</month><year>2025</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>25</day><month>11</month><year>2025</year></date></history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>2025 The Author(s). Published by the School of Statistics and the Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>Open access article under the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</ext-link> license.</license-p></license></permissions>
<abstract>
<p>Competitor rating systems for head-to-head games are typically used to measure playing strength from game outcomes. Ratings computed from these systems are often used to select top competitors for elite events, for pairing players of similar strength in online gaming, and for players to track their own strength over time. Most implemented rating systems assume only win/loss outcomes, and treat occurrences of ties as the equivalent to half a win and half a loss. However, in games such as chess, the probability of a tie (draw) is demonstrably higher for stronger players than for weaker players, so that rating systems ignoring this aspect of game results may produce strength estimates that are unreliable. We develop a new rating system for head-to-head games based on a model that explicitly acknowledges that a tie may depend on the strengths of the competitors. The approach uses a Bayesian dynamic modeling framework. Within each time period, posterior updates are computed in closed form using a single Newton-Raphson iteration evaluated at the prior mean. The approach is demonstrated on a large dataset of chess games played in International Correspondence Chess Federation tournaments.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<label>Keywords</label>
<kwd>Bayesian dynamic generalized linear model</kwd>
<kwd>Bradley-Terry model</kwd>
<kwd>chess tournaments</kwd>
<kwd>order effects</kwd>
<kwd>Paired comparison models</kwd>
<kwd>ranking models</kwd>
<kwd>tie outcomes</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><funding-statement>This work was partially supported by the International Correspondence Chess Federation.</funding-statement></funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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