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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title></journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1683-8602</issn><issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn><issn-l>1680-743X</issn-l>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>School of Statistics, Renmin University of China</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">JDS1182</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/25-JDS1182</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Data Science in Action</subject></subj-group></article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Bayesian Multivariate Joint Modeling of Longitudinal, Recurrent, and Competing Risk Terminal Events in Patients with Chronic Kidney Disease</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Qian</surname><given-names>Qi</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1182_aff_001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Nguyen</surname><given-names>Danh V.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1182_aff_002">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Kurum</surname><given-names>Esra</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1182_aff_003">3</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Banerjee</surname><given-names>Sudipto</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1182_aff_001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Rhee</surname><given-names>Connie M.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1182_aff_004">4</xref><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1182_aff_005">5</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Senturk</surname><given-names>Damla</given-names></name><email xlink:href="mailto:dsenturk@ucla.edu">dsenturk@ucla.edu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1182_aff_001">1</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">∗</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="j_jds1182_aff_001"><label>1</label>Department of Biostatistics, <institution>University of California</institution>, Los Angeles, CA 90095, <country>USA</country></aff>
<aff id="j_jds1182_aff_002"><label>2</label>Department of Medicine, <institution>University of California</institution>, Irvine, CA 92868, <country>USA</country></aff>
<aff id="j_jds1182_aff_003"><label>3</label>Department of Statistics, <institution>University of California</institution>, Riverside, CA 92521, <country>USA</country></aff>
<aff id="j_jds1182_aff_004"><label>4</label>Department of Medicine, <institution>University of California</institution>, Los Angeles, CA 90095, <country>USA</country></aff>
<aff id="j_jds1182_aff_005"><label>5</label>USA and Nephrology Section, <institution>VA Greater Los Angeles Health Care System</institution>, Los Angeles, CA 90073, <country>USA</country></aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1"><label>∗</label>Corresponding author. Email: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="mailto:dsenturk@ucla.edu">dsenturk@ucla.edu</ext-link>.</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>16</day><month>4</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume content-type="ahead-of-print">0</volume><issue>0</issue><fpage>1</fpage><lpage>21</lpage><supplementary-material id="S1" content-type="archive" xlink:href="jds1182_s001.zip" mimetype="application" mime-subtype="x-zip-compressed">
<caption>
<title>Supplementary Material</title>
<p>The online Supplementary Materials include detailed descriptions of the prior distributions and the MCMC implementation used, along with Monte Carlo simulation procedures for estimating <inline-formula id="j_jds1182_ineq_001"><alternatives><mml:math>
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<mml:mo mathvariant="normal" fence="true" stretchy="false">)</mml:mo></mml:math><tex-math><![CDATA[${\pi _{p}^{(w)}}(t,s)$]]></tex-math></alternatives></inline-formula>. It also includes metrics used to measure dynamic prediction accuracy, the formulations of the comparative models, and an overview of the simulation study setup. Additionally, the R code and documentation for implementing the proposed BM-JM on simulated datasets are available on Github at <uri>https://github.com/dsenturk/BM-JM</uri>.</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material><history><date date-type="received"><day>1</day><month>10</month><year>2024</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>28</day><month>3</month><year>2025</year></date></history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>2025 The Author(s). Published by the School of Statistics and the Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>Open access article under the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</ext-link> license.</license-p></license></permissions>
<abstract>
<p>Approximately 15% of adults in the United States (U.S.) are afflicted with chronic kidney disease (CKD). For CKD patients, the progressive decline of kidney function is intricately related to hospitalizations due to cardiovascular disease and eventual “terminal” events, such as kidney failure and mortality. To unravel the mechanisms underlying the disease dynamics of these interdependent processes, including identifying influential risk factors, as well as tailoring decision-making to individual patient needs, we develop a novel Bayesian multivariate joint model for the intercorrelated outcomes of kidney function (as measured by longitudinal estimated glomerular filtration rate), recurrent cardiovascular events, and competing-risk terminal events of kidney failure and death. The proposed joint modeling approach not only facilitates the exploration of risk factors associated with each outcome, but also allows dynamic updates of cumulative incidence probabilities for each competing risk for future subjects based on their basic characteristics and a combined history of longitudinal measurements and recurrent events. We propose efficient and flexible estimation and prediction procedures within a Bayesian framework employing Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. The predictive performance of our model is assessed through dynamic area under the receiver operating characteristic curves and the expected Brier score. We demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed methodology through extensive simulations. Proposed methodology is applied to data from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort study established by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases to address the rising epidemic of CKD in the U.S.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<label>Keywords</label>
<kwd>competing risks</kwd>
<kwd>dynamic prediction</kwd>
<kwd>longitudinal data</kwd>
<kwd>predictive modeling</kwd>
<kwd>survival analysis</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><funding-statement>This study was supported by NIDDK grant R01 DK092232 (DS, DVN, EK, SB, CMR, and QQ).</funding-statement></funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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