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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title></journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1683-8602</issn><issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn><issn-l>1680-743X</issn-l>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>School of Statistics, Renmin University of China</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">JDS1086</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/23-JDS1086</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Statistical Data Science</subject></subj-group></article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Comparing Extreme Value Estimation Techniques for Short-Term Snow Accumulations</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3899-5643</contrib-id>
<name><surname>Pomeyie</surname><given-names>Kenneth</given-names></name><email xlink:href="mailto:kenneth.pomeyie@usu.edu">kenneth.pomeyie@usu.edu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1086_aff_001">1</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">∗</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Bean</surname><given-names>Brennan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1086_aff_001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Sun</surname><given-names>Yan</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1086_aff_001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="j_jds1086_aff_001"><label>1</label>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, <institution>Utah State University</institution>, 3900 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT, 84322, <country>USA</country></aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1"><label>∗</label>Corresponding author. Email: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="mailto:kenneth.pomeyie@usu.edu">kenneth.pomeyie@usu.edu</ext-link>.</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>25</day><month>1</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>21</volume><issue>2</issue><fpage>368</fpage><lpage>390</lpage><history><date date-type="received"><day>1</day><month>8</month><year>2022</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>17</day><month>1</month><year>2023</year></date></history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>2023 The Author(s). Published by the School of Statistics and the Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>Open access article under the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</ext-link> license.</license-p></license></permissions>
<abstract>
<p>The potential weight of accumulated snow on the roof of a structure has long been an important consideration in structure design. However, the historical approach of modeling the weight of snow on structures is incompatible for structures with surfaces and geometry where snow is expected to slide off of the structure, such as standalone solar panels. This paper proposes a “storm-level” adaptation of previous structure-related snow studies that is designed to estimate short-term, rather than season-long, accumulations of the snow water equivalent or snow load. One key development associated with this paper includes a climate-driven random forests model to impute missing snow water equivalent values at stations that measure only snow depth in order to produce continuous snow load records. Additionally, the paper compares six different approaches of extreme value estimation on short-term snow accumulations. The results of this study indicate that, when considering the 50-year mean recurrence interval (MRI) for short-term snow accumulations across different weather station types, the traditional block maxima approach, the mean-adjusted quantile method with a gamma distribution approach, and the peak over threshold Bayesian approach tend to most often provide MRI estimates near the median of all six approaches considered in this study. Further, this paper also shows, via bootstrap simulation, that the peak over threshold extreme value estimation using automatic threshold selection approaches tend to have higher variance compared to the other approaches considered. The results suggest that there is no one-size-fits-all option for extreme value estimation of short-term snow accumulations, but highlights the potential value from integrating multiple extreme value estimation approaches.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<label>Keywords</label>
<kwd>extreme value theory</kwd>
<kwd>generalized extreme value distribution</kwd>
<kwd>mean recurrence interval</kwd>
<kwd>peak over threshold</kwd>
<kwd>snow water equivalent</kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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