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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title></journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1683-8602</issn><issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn><issn-l>1680-743X</issn-l>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>School of Statistics, Renmin University of China</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">JDS1026</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/21-JDS1026</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Data Science in Action</subject></subj-group></article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Dynamic Classification of <italic>Plasmodium vivax</italic> Malaria Recurrence: An Application of Classifying Unknown Cause of Failure in Competing Risks</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Liu</surname><given-names>Yutong</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1026_aff_001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Lin</surname><given-names>Feng-Chang</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1026_aff_001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Lin</surname><given-names>Jessica T.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1026_aff_002">2</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Li</surname><given-names>Quefeng</given-names></name><email xlink:href="mailto:quefeng@email.unc.edu">quefeng@email.unc.edu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1026_aff_001">1</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">∗</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="j_jds1026_aff_001"><label>1</label>Department of Biostatistics, <institution>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill</institution>, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, <country>U.S.A.</country></aff>
<aff id="j_jds1026_aff_002"><label>2</label>Institute of Global Health and Infectious Diseases, <institution>University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill</institution>, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, <country>U.S.A.</country></aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1"><label>∗</label>Corresponding author. Email: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="mailto:quefeng@email.unc.edu">quefeng@email.unc.edu</ext-link>.</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><year>2022</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>9</day><month>12</month><year>2021</year></pub-date><volume>20</volume><issue>1</issue><fpage>51</fpage><lpage>78</lpage><supplementary-material id="S1" content-type="document" xlink:href="jds1026_s001.pdf" mimetype="application" mime-subtype="pdf">
<caption>
<title>Supplementary Material</title>
<p>In the Supplementary Materials, we provide additional simulation results for scenarios when the hazard models are misspecified. We also compare our classifiers with those proposed in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="j_jds1026_ref_017">Lin et al.</xref> (<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="j_jds1026_ref_017">2020</xref>) for binary covariates. In addition, we provide results for parameter estimation performance under low-dimensional settings. Additional details of the <italic>P. vivax</italic> malaria study, including the data and codes are provided as well.</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material><history><date date-type="received"><day>8</day><month>6</month><year>2021</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>2</day><month>10</month><year>2021</year></date></history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>2022 The Author(s). Published by the School of Statistics and the Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2022</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>Open access article under the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</ext-link> license.</license-p></license></permissions>
<abstract>
<p>A standard competing risks set-up requires both time to event and cause of failure to be fully observable for all subjects. However, in application, the cause of failure may not always be observable, thus impeding the risk assessment. In some extreme cases, none of the causes of failure is observable. In the case of a recurrent episode of <italic>Plasmodium vivax</italic> malaria following treatment, the patient may have suffered a relapse from a previous infection or acquired a new infection from a mosquito bite. In this case, the time to relapse cannot be modeled when a competing risk, a new infection, is present. The efficacy of a treatment for preventing relapse from a previous infection may be underestimated when the true cause of infection cannot be classified. In this paper, we developed a novel method for classifying the latent cause of failure under a competing risks set-up, which uses not only time to event information but also transition likelihoods between covariates at the baseline and at the time of event occurrence. Our classifier shows superior performance under various scenarios in simulation experiments. The method was applied to <italic>Plasmodium vivax</italic> infection data to classify recurrent infections of malaria.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<label>Keywords</label>
<kwd>malaria relapse</kwd>
<kwd>Markov transition model</kwd>
<kwd>quadratic approximation</kwd>
<kwd>two-stage estimation</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><funding-statement>Dr. Feng-Chang Lin’s research was partially supported by NIH grant UL1TR002489. Dr. Quefeng Li’s research was partially supported by NIH grant R01AG073259.</funding-statement></funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
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