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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
<journal-title-group><journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title></journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1683-8602</issn><issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn><issn-l>1680-743X</issn-l>
<publisher>
<publisher-name>School of Statistics, Renmin University of China</publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">JDS1022</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/21-JDS1022</article-id>
<article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
<subject>Data Science Reviews</subject></subj-group></article-categories>
<title-group>
<article-title>Statistical Learning in Medical Research with Decision Threshold and Accuracy Evaluation</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Sande</surname><given-names>Sumaiya Z.</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1022_aff_001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Seng</surname><given-names>Loraine</given-names></name><email xlink:href="mailto:loraine_seng@u.nus.edu">loraine_seng@u.nus.edu</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1022_aff_001">1</xref><xref ref-type="corresp" rid="cor1">∗</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>Li</surname><given-names>Jialiang</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1022_aff_001">1</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name><surname>D’Agostino</surname><given-names>Ralph</given-names></name><xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_jds1022_aff_002">2</xref>
</contrib>
<aff id="j_jds1022_aff_001"><label>1</label>Department of Statistics and Data Science, <institution>National University of Singapore</institution>, <country>Singapore</country></aff>
<aff id="j_jds1022_aff_002"><label>2</label>Department of Mathematics and Statistics, <institution>Boston University</institution>, Massachusetts, <country>USA</country></aff>
</contrib-group>
<author-notes>
<corresp id="cor1"><label>∗</label>Corresponding author. Email: <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="mailto:loraine_seng@u.nus.edu">loraine_seng@u.nus.edu</ext-link>.</corresp>
</author-notes>
<pub-date pub-type="ppub"><year>2021</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>23</day><month>9</month><year>2021</year></pub-date><volume>19</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>634</fpage><lpage>657</lpage>
<supplementary-material id="S1" content-type="archive" xlink:href="jds1022_s001.zip" mimetype="application" mime-subtype="x-zip-compressed">
<caption>
<title>Supplementary Materials</title>
<p>Supplementary material online include: The review of different smoothers used in Generalized additive models, Installation details for <monospace>R</monospace> interface for Keras and Tensorflow, data and R code needed to reproduce the results.</p>
</caption>
</supplementary-material><history><date date-type="received"><day>10</day><month>5</month><year>2021</year></date><date date-type="accepted"><day>18</day><month>8</month><year>2021</year></date></history>
<permissions><copyright-statement>2021 The Author(s). Published by the School of Statistics and the Center for Applied Statistics, Renmin University of China.</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2021</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">
<license-p>Open access article under the <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">CC BY</ext-link> license.</license-p></license></permissions>
<abstract>
<p>Machine learning methods are increasingly applied for medical data analysis to reduce human efforts and improve our understanding of disease propagation. When the data is complicated and unstructured, shallow learning methods may not be suitable or feasible. Deep learning neural networks like multilayer perceptron (MLP) and convolutional neural network (CNN), have been incorporated in medical diagnosis and prognosis for better health care practice. For a binary outcome, these learning methods directly output predicted probabilities for patient’s health condition. Investigators still need to consider appropriate decision threshold to split the predicted probabilities into positive and negative regions. We review methods to select the cut-off values, including the relatively automatic methods based on optimization of the ROC curve criteria and also the utility-based methods with a net benefit curve. In particular, decision curve analysis (DCA) is now acknowledged in medical studies as a good complement to the ROC analysis for the purpose of decision making. In this paper, we provide the R code to illustrate how to perform the statistical learning methods, select decision threshold to yield the binary prediction and evaluate the accuracy of the resulting classification. This article will help medical decision makers to understand different classification methods and use them in real world scenario.</p>
</abstract>
<kwd-group>
<label>Keywords</label>
<kwd>deep learning</kwd>
<kwd>machine learning</kwd>
<kwd>net benefit</kwd>
<kwd>ROC</kwd>
<kwd>threshold</kwd>
</kwd-group>
<funding-group><award-group><funding-source xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.13039/501100001459">MOE</funding-source><award-id>R-155-000-205-114</award-id><award-id>R-155-000-195-114</award-id><award-id>R-155-000-197-112</award-id><award-id>R-155-000-197-113</award-id></award-group><funding-statement>The work was partly supported by Academic Research Funds R-155-000-205-114, R-155-000-195-114 and Tier 2 MOE funds in Singapore MOE2017-T2-2-082: R-155-000-197-112 (Direct cost) and R-155-000-197-113 (IRC). </funding-statement></funding-group>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
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