res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,2,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
mean(abs(dat5_new[2:13]-a))
mean(predvar)
a=rep(0,12)
predvar=rep(0,12)
for(i in 1:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="VINELAND",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="VINELAND",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 3:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="VINELAND",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="VINELAND",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,4,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 4:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="VINELAND",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="VINELAND",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 5:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="VINELAND",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="VINELAND",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,4,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
dat5_new=dat2[(dat2[,1]>=2018) & dat2_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",]
latit1=dat5[14]
longi1=dat5[15]
eleva1=dat5[16]
new_dat=data.frame(latit=dat5[14],longi=dat5[15],eleva=dat5[16],years=2018)
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13]))
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp1=sarima.for(res,12,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a=predict(fital,new_dat)+sarima.for(res,12,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)$pred
mean(abs(dat5_new[2:13]-a))
mean(abs(dat5_new[5:13]-a[4:12]))
mean(temp1$se[4:12])
a=rep(0,12)
predvar=rep(0,12)
for(i in 5:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
a=rep(0,12)
predvar=rep(0,12)
for(i in 1:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 9:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,4,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 10:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 12:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="BELLEVILLE",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,2,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
mean(abs(dat5_new[2:13]-a))
mean(predvar)
dat5_new=dat2[(dat2[,1]>=2018) & dat2_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",]
latit1=dat5[14]
longi1=dat5[15]
eleva1=dat5[16]
new_dat=data.frame(latit=dat5[14],longi=dat5[15],eleva=dat5[16],years=2018)
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13]))
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp1=sarima.for(res,12,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a=predict(fital,new_dat)+sarima.for(res,12,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)$pred
mean(abs(dat5_new[2:13]-a))
mean(abs(dat5_new[5:13]-a[4:12]))
mean(temp1$se[4:12])
a=rep(0,12)
predvar=rep(0,12)
for(i in 1:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 2:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,4,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 2:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,2,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 10:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 11:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HAMILTON",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,4,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
mean(abs(dat5_new[2:13]-a))
mean(predvar)
dat5_new=dat2[(dat2[,1]>=2018) & dat2_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",]
latit1=dat5[14]
longi1=dat5[15]
eleva1=dat5[16]
new_dat=data.frame(latit=dat5[14],longi=dat5[15],eleva=dat5[16],years=2018)
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13]))
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp1=sarima.for(res,12,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a=predict(fital,new_dat)+sarima.for(res,12,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)$pred
mean(abs(dat5_new[2:13]-a))
mean(abs(dat5_new[5:13]-a[4:12]))
mean(temp1$se[4:12])
a=rep(0,12)
predvar=rep(0,12)
for(i in 1:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,4,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
a=rep(0,12)
predvar=rep(0,12)
for(i in 1:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 7:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,4,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 10:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
for(i in 10:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="HALIBURTON",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,2,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
mean(abs(dat5_new[2:13]-a))
mean(predvar)
dat5_new=dat2[(dat2[,1]>=2018) & dat2_new[,17]=="PETERBOROUGH",]
latit1=dat5[14]
longi1=dat5[15]
eleva1=dat5[16]
new_dat=data.frame(latit=dat5[14],longi=dat5[15],eleva=dat5[16],years=2018)
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="PETERBOROUGH",2:13]))
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp1=sarima.for(res,12,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a=predict(fital,new_dat)+sarima.for(res,12,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)$pred
mean(abs(dat5_new[2:13]-a))
mean(abs(dat5_new[5:13]-a[4:12]))
mean(temp1$se[4:12])
a=rep(0,12)
predvar=rep(0,12)
for(i in 1:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="PETERBOROUGH",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="PETERBOROUGH",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 6:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="PETERBOROUGH",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="PETERBOROUGH",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,4,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
i
for(i in 7:12){
if(i==1){
respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="PETERBOROUGH",2:13]))
}else{
respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="PETERBOROUGH",2:13])),dat5_new[2:i])
}
#  if(i==1){
#    respy=as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13]))
#  }else if(i==6 ||i==7){
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2])
#  }else{
#    respy=c(as.vector(t(dat3[(dat3[,1]<2018) & dat3_new[,17]=="CAMERON FALLS",2:13])),dat5_new[2],dat5_new[4:i])
#  }
res=respy-predict(fital,new_dat)
temp=sarima.for(res,1,3,1,3,1,0,1,12)
a[i]=predict(fital,new_dat)+temp$pred
predvar[i]=temp$se
}
mean(abs(dat5_new[2:13]-a))
mean(predvar)
fital$residuals
setwd("~/Documents/2018research/project1/Canada Data/Homog_monthly_mean_temp/time extrapolation")
boxplot(dat1,ylim=c(1.2,4.3),main="")
par(mfrow=c(1,2))
dat1=read.csv("TE_plot.csv",header=FALSE)
colnames(dat1)=c("VINE4","MRM","LRM","AR","SARIMA")
boxplot(dat1,ylim=c(1.2,4.3),main="")
par(mfrow=c(1,1))
dat1=read.csv("TE_plot.csv",header=FALSE)
colnames(dat1)=c("VINE4","MRM","LRM","AR","SARIMA")
boxplot(dat1,ylim=c(1.2,4.3),main="")
dat2=read.csv("TE_plot1.csv",header=FALSE)
colnames(dat2)=c("VINE4","MRM","LRM","AR","SARIMA")
boxplot(dat2,ylim=c(1.2,4.3))
par(mfrow=c(1,2))
dat1=read.csv("TE_plot.csv",header=FALSE)
colnames(dat1)=c("VINE4","MRM","LRM","AR","SARIMA")
boxplot(dat1,ylim=c(1.2,4.3),main="")
dat2=read.csv("TE_plot1.csv",header=FALSE)
colnames(dat2)=c("VINE4","MRM","LRM","AR","SARIMA")
boxplot(dat2,ylim=c(1.2,4.3))
sqrt(2.976)
temp1$se
