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  <front>
    <journal-meta>
      <journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">JDS</journal-id>
      <journal-title-group>
        <journal-title>Journal of Data Science</journal-title>
      </journal-title-group>
      <issn pub-type="epub">1680-743X</issn>
      <issn pub-type="ppub">1680-743X</issn>
      <publisher>
        <publisher-name>SOSRUC</publisher-name>
      </publisher>
    </journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="publisher-id">060410</article-id>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.6339/JDS.2008.06(4).419
</article-id>
      <article-categories>
        <subj-group subj-group-type="heading">
          <subject>Research Article</subject>
        </subj-group>
      </article-categories>
      <title-group>
        <article-title>Analysis of Contagion in Emerging Markets</article-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Filleti</surname>
            <given-names>Juliana de P.</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_000"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_000">University of Campinas</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Hotta</surname>
            <given-names>Luiz K.</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_001"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_001">University of Campinas</aff>
        <contrib contrib-type="author">
          <name>
            <surname>Zevallos</surname>
            <given-names>Mauricio</given-names>
          </name>
          <xref ref-type="aff" rid="j_JDS_aff_002"/>
        </contrib>
        <aff id="j_JDS_aff_002">University of Campinas</aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <volume>6</volume>
      <issue>4</issue>
      <fpage>601</fpage>
      <lpage>626</lpage>
      <permissions>
        <ali:free_to_read xmlns:ali="http://www.niso.org/schemas/ali/1.0/"/>
      </permissions>
      <abstract>
        <p>Abstract: The spread of crises from one country to another, named “con tagion”, has been one of the most debated issues in international finance in the last two decades. The presence of contagion can be detected by the increase in conditional correlation during the crisis period compared to the previous period. The paper presents a brief review of three of the most used techniques to estimate conditional correlation: exponential weighted mov ing average, multivariate GARCH models and factor analysis with stochastic volatility models. These methods are applied to analyze the contagion be tween the stock market of three major Latin American economies (Brazil, Mexico and Argentina) and two emerging markets (Malaysia and Russia). The data cover the period from 09/05/1995 to 12/30/2004, which includes several crises. In general, the three methods yielded similar results, but there is no general agreement. All the methods agreed that the contagion occurred mostly during the Asian crisis.</p>
      </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
</article>
